Global Warming

No credible pathway to 1.5 degrees

Carbon dioxide concentrations in Earth's atmosphere have increased by about 40% since 1750, with most of the increase since the 1970s.  This increase is largely caused by human activities, primarily greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning, but also from other activities such as agriculture and deforestation. Through these activities, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane or ozone have increased, causing the Earth to warm [1].

Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels. Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least mid-century. and it is likely that global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades [2].

In December 2015 a legally binding international treaty was agreed by 193 nations [3], known as the Paris Agreement.  Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral world by mid-century [4]. Many countries subsequently announced net-zero goals as did many businesses. The UK announced a commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050 [5], as did the EU [6] and the US [7].As at 23 September 2022, 88 parties covering approximately 79% of global GHG emissions have adopted net-zero pledges [8].

However, in October 2022, the United Nations Environment Programme announced that there is “no credible pathway to 1.5 degrees C" by 2050, as agreed by the Paris Climate Accord. Current national climate plans – for 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement taken together – would lead to a sizable increase of almost 11% in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 2010 levels [9].  More likely atmospheric warming will likely be  2-3 degrees C by 2100 [10]. The focus has shifted to achieving a 45% reduction of emissions by 2030 [11].

Most impacted industries: All industries need a plan to net-zero but most affected are Transportation and Energy & Resources.

Rising Seawater

Billions at risk

Glaciers and ice sheets in polar and mountain regions are already melting faster than ever due to global warming, causing sea levels to rise. Roughly 40% of the global population lives within 100 kilometers of a coast, and roughly 10% of the world’s population lives in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level [1]. Almost two-thirds of the world’s cities with populations of over five million are located in areas at risk of sea level rise [2]. According to the United Nations, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that oceans will rise between 10 and 30 inches (26 to 77 cm) by 2100 with temperatures warming to at least 1.5 degrees [3].

There are currently around 2.4 million properties at risk of flooding from rivers and the sea in England [4].

Sea level rise is driving the need for adaptation in the human and ecological systems of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas in order to counter the effects of sea level rise and flooding due to extreme weather events.

Most impacted industries: Construction, Energy & Resources (system resilience) and Financial Services (insurance and property investment). There will also be an impact in Governmental environmental spending.

Resource Conservation

Rent, Repair, Reuse, Recycle

The global environmental problems we face today are largely the result of human overexploitation of natural resources, including (fossil) fuels, minerals, water, land and biodiversity. It has become increasingly clear that the prevailing model of economic development — based on high resource use, waste generation and pollution — cannot be sustained in the long term.   In addition the effects of climate change heighten competition for resources such as land, food, and water.

Globally, water scarcity already affects four out of every 10 people and more than 2 billion people live in countries experiencing high water stress. This will rise to 47% by 2030. The situation will likely worsen as populations and the demand for water grow, and as the effects of climate change intensify [1].

50% cent of food produced is wasted in the distribution chains of the developing world before it reaches the consumer. Reducing this is crucial to meeting food demand of a growing population, reducing emissions and conserving resources [2].

Retailers are one of the biggest contributors of plastic packaging, which represents 40% of global plastic usage [3]. Trends like Fast Fashion and Consumer Technology advances have also increased consumption and waste of precious resources.

In recent years, the concept of the circular economy and recycling policies have tackled resource use, production, consumption and waste. This aims to maintain the value of products, materials and resources in the economy for as long as possible. This reduces waste generation and the use of virgin material. All industries need to address the use of resources in their supply chains and move towards circular economy approaches.

Most impacts industries: Technology, Media & Telecommunications, Retail & Consumer Goods, Energy & Resources and Construction. Societal, Environmental, Econonic and Geopolitical risks also impact Governments.